Todd Hoffman: Measuring the Midterm — Bloodbath or Business as Usual?
To hear the media tell it, the 2026 midterm was a historic beating for President Trump. Republicans lost 48 seats in Congress and control of both chambers. Those are real losses, but were they as big as the headlines suggest? Past midterms can tell us.
First, we need to know what normal looks like. A good baseline tells us two things: what to expect, and how much results usually vary. The average seat change in past midterms tells us what to expect. The range, from the biggest gain to the biggest loss, shows how much results vary. The wider that range, the less any single result should be expected to land near the average. The same idea applies to other measures, like how often the president’s party loses control of Congress.
Press releases:
Substacks
Lenney: The blue wave skipped Idaho
Blaylock: The good, the bad, and the ugly (regarding rural healthcare grants)
Video of the day
John Doyle breaks down the character of Stephen Miller, President Trump’s new press secretary, to explain why the left despises him, and why he gives the right hope for the remainder of Trump’s administration:
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