The Morning After

Taking stock of the odd-year elections

Another Election Day has come and gone. As always, pundits are rushing to draw as many conclusions as possible from the results, many of which will likely miss the forest for the trees. Such is life. I’ll do my best to break things down as I see them the morning after, with my usual measured approach.

First, the national races. Outsized expectations notwithstanding, it’s not exactly news that left-wing Democrats won contests in blue states like Virginia, New Jersey, and New York. It is, however, a reminder that despite conservative victories over the past year, roughly half of our country remains firmly planted on the left side of the political spectrum.

Many conservatives have become caught up on the Muslim faith of New York City’s mayor-elect, Zohran Mamdani, but that’s a red herring compared to his socialist, even outright communist, positions. Older conservatives brush this off, saying New Yorkers will see the error of their ways as Mamdani’s policies begin to impact their lives and that the pendulum will inevitably swing back toward Giuliani-style law and order.

I’m not so sure. I bet residents of Moscow thought the same thing about Lenin in 1917.

Mamdani’s election was made possible by mass migration from regions where socialism, communism, and other forms of left-wing populism are viewed as features, not bugs. It’s a truism that if you import the Third World, you will become the Third World. American soil is not “magic dirt” that transforms cultures that elevate strongmen without regard for law or economics into Mises libertarians or Burkean conservatives.

This is a populist moment in history. The economic highs we enjoyed from the late 1940s into the early 2000s have ended, and young people are looking askance at a system that no longer works for them. They demand results, not platitudes. Twitter user Zarathustra put it well:

Many older folks (even many in their 30s who haven’t set foot on campus in years) don’t grasp this & may never: our politics are about to get *far more radical *economically in the coming years, on both the left & the right. Zohran is a sneak preview. You don’t have to like it. It’s coming regardless. You’ve been warned. Get ready.

Pollster Rich Baris explained it even more plainly:

Listen to Mamdani.

And you’re all surprised he won?

You thought these old stupid arguments were going to work, to scare people?

It’s leftwing populism or rightwing populism.

Those are the only two possible outcomes because that’s how badly our ruling class has ruled.

In such a populist moment, our options are limited. The old-guard Republicans who spent the past few weeks tut-tutting younger people on the right are trapped by the delusion that we’ll somehow return to a 2000s-era Bush/Romney paradigm any day now. Consider, however, that Virginia voters elected a man who wished death upon his opponent’s children to be their attorney general. If that’s not a sign of where we are, I don’t know what is.

Locally, results were mixed across Idaho. Lynn Bradescu’s campaign for Boise City Council did not end as we hoped, with incumbent Jimmy Hallyburton winning more than 70% of the vote. From the start, I knew Lynn had a chance, but two things had to happen: Republican voters needed to turn out, and Lisa Sánchez needed to campaign hard enough to pull some of Hallyburton’s voters. Unfortunately, neither happened.

I’ll join the rest of Lynn’s campaign team in examining the data, and I’m sure we’ll learn valuable lessons for the future. Serving on her team was an honor and a privilege, and I learned much from working with her campaign manager, data analysts, and of course, Lynn herself. Putting your name on the ballot, raising tens of thousands of dollars, and taking the slings and arrows of the critics who stand outside the arena takes no small amount of courage.

A lot of people came together to donate money, knock on doors, make phone calls, and more, but in the end, the liberal incumbent won. The question is: why? It’s easy to brush it off as “Boise being Boise,” but if we want to save our state from following the same path as Washington, Oregon, and Colorado, we need to dig deeper.

Don’t Boise citizens struggle with property taxes like the rest of us? Don’t they want transparent, accountable leadership? Don’t they want good jobs and affordable housing?

One thing that stood out to me last night was that more than 80% of Boise voters supported a property tax increase to fund additional “open spaces.”

Data analysis suggests that a considerable portion of voters who supported Lynn, as well as conservative challengers in Council District 2, also supported the levy. Perhaps Boiseans don’t mind higher property taxes. Perhaps they believe government should use tax dollars for things beyond what you and I see as its proper role. Or perhaps they believe the mayor and council are doing a satisfactory job.

Isn’t our system supposed to reflect the will of the voters? What if the voters want progressive governance in Boise? What if they want communism in New York City?

Turnout remains a huge problem for Republicans and an advantage for Democrats. Over on Twitter, DataRepublican pointed out that countless progressive organizations exist solely to turn out the Democrat vote in every election, no matter where or when. On the other hand, there are few, if any, such organizations on the right.

Democrats learned long ago that gaining power in a democratic republic is about numbers, not ideas. Many Republicans still cling to the illusion that elections are decided by vigorous debate, which is clearly not the case. Curtis Yarvin put it bluntly:

The right cares about power the way a wine snob cares about alcohol.

The left cares about power the way an alcoholic cares about alcohol.

Guess who always wins

Conservative reactions to the recent “no kings” protests ranged from fears of an imminent revolution to dismissing them as impotent screaming. The truth is more boring—and more insidious: rallies like that are recruitment drives for Democrat voters, collecting names and phone numbers they’ll use to boost turnout in future races.

I saw another tweet, I can’t recall from whom, that said something to the effect of “Republicans will only turn out to vote for a candidate they truly love, while Democrats will turn out for a man who fantasized about murdering his opponent’s children.” In the weeks leading up to this election, Democrats were turning out the vote, while Republicans were arguing about Israel and who’s allowed to appear on whose podcast.

The left cares about winning. The right cares about optics, self-policing, and purity spirals. Guess who always wins.

The only consistent Republican wins of the past decade have been driven by Donald Trump. That’s a tough pill to swallow for those who see him as a populist aberration they hope will soon pass. For those of us who have supported Trump and his policies, it raises another question: where do we go next? Barring a repeal of the 22nd Amendment, Trump has run his last campaign. The conservative civil wars we’ve seen in recent weeks are really about who will pick up the mantle of MAGA. Will it be someone like Vice President J.D. Vance, the populist heir-presumptive? Or will the old guard GOP succeed in co-opting the movement, as they did with the Tea Party?

I’ll have more to say about that in the future.

Coming back to local elections, as I said: results were mixed. In Eagle, former mayor and council member Nancy Merrill won the most votes, followed by newcomer Robert Gillis. My friend Steve Bender came in third, followed by former council member Kenny Pittman. A two-seat race with so many overlapping factions involved is especially hard to break down. Eagle’s new council will be an interesting blend of old and new.

The West Ada School Board has been under fire for resisting the LGBTQ+ agenda, so the two seats on the ballot were viewed as a referendum on the culture war. The result wasn’t decisive either way: incumbent Lori Frasure won reelection with just under 54% of the vote, while incumbent Angie Redford was defeated, winning less than 33%.

Meridian voters had no choices in their council races, as all three incumbents on the ballot ran unopposed. They did, however, approve a new property tax levy to fund firefighters, police officers, and an in-house prosecution team. The levy passed with 66% of the vote, just over the 60% threshold required.

Canyon County saw several positive results for conservatives. Over in Caldwell, conservative-backed candidates swept the mayoral and council races. Eric Phillips ousted incumbent Mayor Jarom Wagoner 57% to 30%, while Scott Tilmant, Chuck Stadick, and Diana Register won council seats. In Nampa, incumbent Canyon County Clerk Rick Hogaboam crushed three challengers in the mayoral race, winning 63% of the vote.

Hogaboam was the surest bet in the state last night, having won endorsements from conservatives, moderate Republicans, and even the Idaho Statesman. I’ve spoken with him several times over the past couple of years and found him intelligent and thoughtful about local government and growth. I’m glad to see him at the helm in Nampa.

Nampa voters approved a supplemental school levy, but fire districts in Star, Parma, and Middleton each saw their levies defeated.

In eastern Idaho, conservative mayoral challengers in Idaho Falls and Pocatello each earned runoff elections. Jeff Alldridge led the field in Idaho Falls and will face Council Member Lisa Burtenshaw next month. He seems to have the momentum, and I’d guess most who supported the other challenger, Christian Ashcraft, will shift his way.

Pocatello Mayor Brian Blad, under fire for numerous controversies, including an officer-involved shooting last summer, was ousted, finishing fourth out of seven candidates. Conservative-backed Greg Cates will face Mark Dahlquist in next month’s runoff, and it will be interesting to see how that one plays out.

Kootenai County races always attract statewide attention, and this year was no different. The Kootenai County Republican Central Committee (KCRCC) has established itself as the gold standard for rating and vetting candidates, and a KCRCC endorsement is coveted in North Idaho. This year, their recommended candidates essentially swept the board everywhere except Coeur d’Alene and Hayden. That’s another phenomenon worth watching—is the Coeur d’Alene metro area going the way of Boise, becoming a blue dot in a red region?

Council Member Dan Gookin won the Coeur d’Alene mayoral race following outreach to local Republicans. The KCRCC-backed candidate, Debbie Loffman, pulled ahead of incumbent Woody McEvers but fell short of victory. Unlike most southern and eastern Idaho cities, Coeur d’Alene does not hold a mayoral runoff, so this race is final.

The other race I watched closely was in Post Falls, where Mayor Ron Jacobson faced two conservative challengers. In my analysis, Scot Haug represented a traditional conservative Republican perspective, while Randy Westlund offered a more populist approach. Both outdrew the incumbent, with Westlund finishing on top with nearly 39% of the vote.

As with Coeur d’Alene, Post Falls does not hold runoffs, so Westlund will be the city’s next mayor.

Check out the full results at VoteIdaho. I’m sure I and others will have more to say about these outcomes over the coming weeks, by which time we’ll be preparing for the 2026 legislative session.

I’ll close by sharing my Election Day experience. I served as chief judge in Precinct 1613, in Boise’s West Bench neighborhood. Valley View Elementary principal Rick Jordan and custodian C.J. Spencer did a tremendous job providing my team and me everything we needed for a smooth election.

I highly recommend anyone interested in elections sign up to be a poll worker. Being part of the process has given me great confidence in the way Ada County handles its elections each year. From Clerk Trent Tripple to the election staff, district judges, and poll workers, their team is consistently competent and helpful.

Voting is both the least and most basic duty of a citizen in our Republic. I hope all of you fulfilled that duty yesterday. The balance of power in a representative republic is determined by who shows up to the polls—if you’re not voting, then decisions are being made by others who might not share your values.

The fundamental lesson of every election, whether we win or lose, is that the future belongs to those who show up. So it’s time to show up!