Recapping the horse race
Daily Digest 5/20/26
The day after
Idaho’s real election is in May, not November, which means yesterday’s results are going to have a tremendous impact on the future of our state. I broke it down for you at the Gem State Chronicle this morning:
There are some big takeaways from this primary election, and here are just a few off the top of my head:
Idaho is becoming more geographically polarized. The moderate holdouts in the Panhandle went down in defeat, but conservative challengers in the east were still unable to make any gains.
Rep. Jordan Redman took heat for donating his own money to the cause, but it might well have turned the tide in the north.
The governor’s machine is strong, but not all-powerful. He and his allies were able to save figures like Rep. Stephanie Mickelsen, Rep. Rick Cheatum, and Sen. Jim Guthrie, but were unable to make any headway in Canyon County or the Panhandle.
Hard work was rewarded. Good men such as Reps. Cornel Rasor, Kyle Harris, Steve Tanner, and Chris Bruce, each of whom won very close races in 2024, were reelected by large margins yesterday. Each of them put their heads down and worked hard for their constituents over the past two years.
Immigration enforcement is probably on the back burner for the next two years. Guthrie and Mickelsen, the chief opponents of immigration reform, held on, while Sen. Glenneda Zuiderveld, who became emblematic of the problem when Big Ag conspired to shut down her family business, lost.
The Gang of 8 is now the Gang of 3, while Idaho Freedom Caucus held all its races and is likely set to expand. Is it time to unite as one conservative caucus heading into 2027?
It’s time for new blood. I count nine former legislators who tried to make a comeback this year, but only one—Scott Herndon—was successful.
After sleeping on it and doing some analysis this morning, I could probably write ten thousand words covering each of these angles, but I’ll try to break it up into small chunks over the next few days.
For now, let’s just take some of the most contested races one at a time and I’ll share my initial thoughts.
I’ll have more analysis over the next couple of days, so stay tuned and make sure all your friends are subscribed!
Relive the exciting night
Kudos to Matt Edwards of Citizens Alliance of Idaho. Not only does he run the best political organization in the state, not only did he spearhead the most impactful electioneering work this year, but he also streamed from the Idaho GOP watch party for four and a half hours straight.
I joined Matt several times with updates, and he was also joined by Idaho GOP chairwoman Dorothy Moon, Sen. Brian Lenney, Rep. Josh Tanner, Attorney General Raúl Labrador, famous radio host Nate Shelman, Ada County GOP chairman Thad Butterworth, Sen. Tammy Nichols, Rep. Rob Beiswenger, Sam Rust from the Gem State Brief, and even Speaker Mike Moyle.
Relive the entire exciting night here:
A flurry of press releases
Congressman Simpson advances federal funding for Black Mountain
Congressman Simpson advances federal funding for a water treatment plant
Remember, whether we agree with them or not, it’s important for us to know what people in our government are saying.
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